Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Fwd: 4 Golden Trading Rules of Successful Trading by Simon Townshend


Times and activities on a scheduled trading day

Pre-market (planning and analysis time)

We generally start our day at 7am CST (1pm UK time). This is a low key slow start period of the day in which we evaluate the overnight activity and develop our plan of attack for the day.

 

There are very rare pre-open trades but these are not common. Carrying positions through the open is difficult, so a pre-market trade is likely to be a small scalp only.

 

Consequently this is our lowest priority session of the day and somewhat less than half of our members choose to be online at this time.

Morning (a high activity, top priority time)

Once the market opens at 8:30am CST (2:30pm UK time) we shift gears dramatically. This session is the most important time of day when everyone who can, should be trading and focused on the market.

 

Most days there is news at 9:00am CST. So any position opened in the first half hour needs to have the risk out of it as a minimum, if it is to be held through the news. After this time the field is usually clear to initiate and/or hold trades throughout the morning.

 

Depending on how the morning develops we will determine how long to hold and how best to manage a position. The first priority is always to get the initial risk out as quickly as possible, which may mean exiting in pieces and/or trailing our stop.

Lunchtime (activity dies off - take a break!)

By about 11:15am CST (5:15pm UK time) activity and volume starts to die off as traders in Chicago and New York go off to lunch. Traders in Europe are also going home for the day.

 

Lunchtime is therefore the lowest probability time of the day to be trading and hence is the ideal time for us to take a 60 to 90 minute break.

 

Most of the time we will close positions at the end of the morning session and be flat over lunchtime. The exception to this would be on a trend day when we may elect to hold a full or partial position through lunchtime with the expectation of continuation in the afternoon session.

Afternoon (lower activity, 3rd priority time)

Any time from about 12.45pm CST (6:45pm UK time) the market starts to wake up again. Volume and activity levels improve and we start to watch for new opportunities.

 

Unlike the morning session which we enter without knowing what sort of day will actually unfold, as we go into the afternoon the nature of the day we are dealing with is known. Consequently this is a much less intense period of trading, generally with much more notice that we are looking to take a position or not.

 

We take fewer trades in the afternoon than the morning and as a rule they will be played for smaller profits. Therefore this is a good time of day to be trading, but it is far less important than the morning session.

Close (often active, 2nd priority time)

The last hour of the day can provide a number of specific opportunities overlooked by the majority of traders. Along with the open, the close is the highest volume time of day. But unlike the open, we know the type of day that has been playing out as we go into the close and therefore can choose to deploy one of three specific tactics designed to capture moves at this time of day.

 

Because of the unique nature of the close and the speed at which profits can be achieved, the close has become our second most important period of the day to be active in the market. We even have members who are working towards only trading this time of day!





Education - The 4 Golden Rules of Successful Trading by Simon Townshend

Education - The Disciplined Trader

www.thedisciplinedtrader.com

Most recent articles. Perhaps you'll find what you're looking for there.

  1. Man UP – Week 160
  2. How Janet Yellen Effects My Trading – Week 159
  3. What Traders Can Learn From Corporate America – Week 158
  4. How Should Traders Act at a Cocktail Party? – Week 157
  5. What traders don't do – and should! – Week 156
  6. Trading War and Peace – Week 155
  7. Stay in Control While Trading Wild Markets – Week 154
  8. Disruptive Technologies to Consider – Week 153
  9. Be a Disruptive Speculator – Week 152
  10. A Trader's Advantage: Independence – Week 151
  11. What does The Buffett/Soros Rule #1 Really Mean? – Week 150
  12. A High Profit Potential Trade You Should Be Aware Of…
  13. George Soros and Warren Buffett have this in common (besides being billionaires) – Week 149
  14. Quality over Quantity? – Week 148
  15. 3 Reasons Why Taking Losses Quickly is Important – Week 147
  16. Hard time getting into good trades? – Week 146
  17. Let's talk barchart timeframes – Week 145
  18. Sell in May and Go Away? Bunk or Fact? – Week 144
  19. High-Frequency Trading – Week 143
  20. Trading and Golf: The winning elements are the same! – Week 142
  21. Simple Technique for Controlling Trading Emotions – Week 141
  22. A Simple Options Trading Idea – Week 140
  23. Technical vs. Fundamental Trading – Week 139
  24. Best bar-timeframes to trade – Week 138
  25. The Break-Even Stop = Controversy – Week 137
  26. Support & Resistance In Your Trading – Week 136
  27. Choppy Market Trading – Week 135
  28. Assess Your Goals – Week 134
  29. Finding The Best Trading System – Week 133
  30. Warren Buffett's Most Empowering Quote Yet? – Week 132
  31. Applying Warren Buffett's Advice Part 4 – Week 131
  32. Applying Warren Buffett's Advice Part 3 – Week 130
  33. Applying Warren Buffett's Advice, Part 2 – Week 129
  34. Applying Warren Buffett's Advice – Week 128
  35. All About Using Stops – Week 127
  36. Finish The Year Profitable – Week 126
  37. The Rule That Makes It All Happen – Week 125
  38. 3 Trading Rules That Lead to Success (Part 2) – Week 124
  39. 3 Trading Rules That Lead To Success – Week 123
  40. Trading Plan vs. Mental Fitness – Week 122

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Tools - Trading computers: Is your computer fast enough to trade with?

Direct Benchmark  Link 
http://www.cpubenchmark.net/cpu_list.php


Hello Fellow Trader,
How do you know if the computer you use on daily basis is truly fast enough for trading?  In this video, I walk you through a quick demo to test your computer's speed.
 
Thanks for watching my video series. My goal is to give you as much information as I can to improve your trading experience.  I've done my best to make these videos useful and actionable.

May the trend be with you!

Eddie Z
EZ Trading Computers
800-387-5250







Education, Philosophy, The Spiritual Side of Trading - Introduction Joe Ross

http://www.tradingeducators.com/spiritual_side_of_trading/introduction.htm?source=resources_to_SSOT

Saturday, September 6, 2014

EVO SIM - 9-6-14 - Decent day ....

Software messed up and would not show sim trades executed as normal.

http://i.gyazo.com/9ae6fad3a51b200b923e77e4e3924e78.png

FUTURES Instruments - DAX to CL

The DAX  is really is better suited for European traders. I live in NYC so in order to monitor activity or daytrade, I would have to stay up from 3AM EST which is start of premarket until 4AM, actual start, then monitor activity anytime to the close at around 12PM EST. Not conducive to a regular lifestyle.

In addition, it's an expensive contract, one tick = 12.5 EUR (16.65 USD).

If you trade US hours, typically the volatility for the futures contracts range from

ES = slowest (tick = 12.5 USD)
YM = fast (tick = 5 USD)
NQ = faster (tick = 5 USD)
TF = fastest (tick = 10 USD)


I prefer the TF (Russell 2k futures) but for newer traders, the YM may be a better alternative/medium since it's not as spikey as the TF but won't make you fall asleep like the ES.

Now if you want to live on the wild side, try trading CL ....

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/i-want-to-trade-fdax.257505/

Tips for trading on the DAX 30



Tips for trading on the DAX 30

It is no secret that there are times during a trading day when it is good to trade and times when it is not good to trade. Experienced traders have learnt when these times are, and novice traders need to learn this information. Understanding the timing of the market will definitely improve your indices trading experience, particularly in the case of trading the DAX.

 

Investors whether they are long term or short term may be holding an investment for hours and days (short term) or weeks and months (long term). Time is both an investor's friend or an investor's enemy and therefore it is vitally important for traders trading the DAX index to interpret the time elements relating to when to trade.

 

Definite hours in the day are normally healthier for trading; some incline to be better for short positions and some better for long positions. Of course, no time pattern is fixed in stone. Nothing is fixed in stone regarding the stock market.

 

So what are the time patterns that DAX 30 index investors should be aware off?

 

    After a bank holiday the afternoon period is much more reliable than the morning period.


    Mondays, predominantly Monday mornings, are not decent days to trade as markets are "absorbing" the previous weekends trading and news happenings.

    Friday afternoon is a bad day to invest since volumes are low as many traders have gone for the weekend.

    Contract rollover days for options and futures, which happen every three months are bad days to trade.

    The afternoon period preceding rollover is always risky.

    Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are decent investing days, except if there is a statement from the Fed bank or major earnings data from an important company.

    The best time for trading is 9:30 to 11 am European time, and the final hour of the day.

    Don't trade in the first 15 minutes of the day, because the market requires a period to form a trend.

    Avoid trading from 12 - 2 pm as floor traders at the exchanges take lunch and the volumes fall, while volatility takes a grip.

    According to the DTI (Diversified Trading Institute) 7.00am and 4:30pm European time are strategic times for the DAX 30. The 7am price of the DAX is a key pivot point to evaluate the sentiments other investors in the market. At 4:30 am European time, the Asian markets handover to the European markets.

    European markets handover to the American markets at 9:30pm.

    If the DAX is down on a Friday, the odds favor a down on Monday.

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Gap Trading: Trading With Probabilities - Trader Kingdom

Gap Trading: Trading With Probabilities - Trader Kingdom

"Gap trading" is a simple and disciplined trading approach. When gap trading, you don't need any indicators. You only need to find a market that has a price gap from the previous close to today's open.

More often than not prices tend to move towards the direction of the previous close, presenting excellent trading opportunities.

In this article I want to show you some ideas how to trade them.

It's All About Probabilities

Depending on where the market opens today in relation to yesterday's close, we see either a full gap or a partial gap.

Scott Andrews from www.MasterTheGap.com has been doing some extensive research about the probabilities of a gap fill.


Click on image to enlarge!

X

The above picture shows the winning percentage for various gap opening scenarios for the e-mini S&P based on more than 2,150 opening gaps between 2002 and 2011.

In this graphic the historical win rate in the S&P 500 E-mini futures for each zone is shown and assumes you faded the gap at the open and held for gap fill (prior day close i.e. thick, yellow line) or until the end of the day if gap did not fill.

Let me explain the different gap trading zones:

All zones starting with "D" are gap trading zones after a "down day", i.e. the previous day's close was below the previous day's open. Here are the different scenarios:

  • D-H (54% historical winning percentage). If today's open is above yesterday's high, then there's a 54% historic winning percentage of prices moving to yesterday's closing price.
  • D-HO (61% historical winning percentage). If today's open is above yesterday's open, but below yesterday's high, then there's a 61% historic winning percentage of prices moving to yesterday's closing price.
  • D-OC (74% historical winning percentage). If today's open is between yesterday's open and close, then there's a 74% historic winning percentage of prices moving to yesterday's closing price.
  • D-CL (83% historical winning percentage). If today's open is below yesterday's close, but above yesterday's low, then there's a 83% historic winning percentage of prices moving to yesterday's closing price.
  • D-L (64% historical winning percentage). If today's open is below yesterday's low, then there's a 64% historic winning percentage of prices moving to yesterday's closing price.

Scott identifies similar zones after an "up day", i.e. the previous day's close was above the previous day's open. Here are the different gap trading scenarios after an "up day":

  • U-H (65% historical winning percentage). If today's open is above yesterday's high, then there's a 65% historic winning percentage of prices moving to yesterday's closing price.
  • U-HC (85% historical winning percentage). If today's open is above yesterday's close, but below yesterday's high, then there's a 85% historic winning percentage of prices moving to yesterday's closing price.
  • U-CO (74% historical winning percentage). If today's open is between yesterday's open and close, then there's a 74% historic winning percentage of prices moving to yesterday's closing price.
  • U-OL (65% historical winning percentage). If today's open is below yesterday's open, but above yesterday's low, then there's a 65% historic winning percentage of prices moving to yesterday's closing price.
  • U-L (48% historical winning percentage). If today's open is below yesterday's low, then there's a 48% historic winning percentage of prices moving to yesterday's closing price.

Not All Gaps Are The Same

As you can see, opening gaps in general have a strong tendency to trade back to the prior day's closing price (65-70%), but depending on today's open in relation to the previous day's open, high, low and close, sometimes the probabilities are higher than average.

You don't have to trade every single gap - focus on the high probability gaps!

The name of the game is not trying to catch all of the winners, but rather to avoid most of the losers.

As an example, why do you think gaps in the U-L zone (bottom right of the Gap Zone Map - see above) show such a low historical win rate (48%)?

Scott Andrews believes it's because gaps opening in this zone are catching traders positioned to the long side off guard, triggering many sell stops in the process. Plus, such an obvious reversal from the prior day surely attracts new short sellers who want to jump on board the beginning of a new potential trend.

Gap Trading In A Nutshell

When looking for gaps, obviously you want to exclude the "overnight session" and only focus on the "day session" of the markets.

ANY market and even stocks are suitable for gap trading. The above graphic shows the historic winning percentage of the e-mini S&P. As you can see, the odds are in your favor when trading gaps, but keep in mind that past performance in not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Pick the highest probabilities. As I said before: It's not about trying to catch all of the winners, but rather to avoid most of the losers.

With that in mind, give gap trading a shot. You can do it with ANY charting software, since you don't need any indicators or other fancy tools.

To learn more from Markus, please visit his blog at RockwellTrading.com.



Sent via TTN
TheTrini Network

Forex turmoil. Where losses Phoenix into winners ...

Battling based on greed, trying larger sizes to detriment.

EVO SIM - 5 Renko - 9-4-14

The Day's Charts - Renko and 233 Tick - 
Final tally for the day



3 SESSIONS - PST TIME ZONE

US OPEN ;  6:30 - 8:30 a

POST-LUNCH ;  10:30 - 11:00 a

US CASH CLOSE ; 12:00 - 1:00 p















3 SESSIONS - PST TIME ZONE

US OPEN ;  6:30 - 8:30 a

POST-LUNCH ;  10:30 - 11:00 a

US CASH CLOSE ; 12:00 - 1:00 p



EVO SIM - RENKO method - 9-4-14 Afternoon session, market closes in an hour (All times PST) -

This is separate / in addition to this morning.
just ... MIGHT be on to something here ... !!!



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